Mississippi Senate count: who leads, and which ballots are still out?

On this page: How the count has moved since Election Night; Why the whole country is watching; and How Colom got here without the national money

How the count has moved since Election Night

Just after midnight Wednesday, Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 28 votes in unofficial returns, The Mississippi Independent reported. Since then, as more ballots were counted, the lead has grown. By late Friday morning, the Associated Press showed Colom ahead by 2,010 votes, 467,066 to 465,056, or 49.1% to 48.8%, the Mississippi Free Press reported. Friday afternoon the Associated Press put the gap at nearly 2,500 votes, without new totals, and estimated about 30,000 votes still to count as of 4:45 pm Eastern. Independent Ty Pinkins has about 2% of the vote.

Colom himself put his lead at about 1,800 votes late Thursday, CNN reported. No news outlet has called the race. Mississippi has no official statewide count yet. Counties post their certified counts by November 13, and the Secretary of State declares the final result on December 3.

Colom's lead, by news outlet and time (all times as each outlet gave them)

Outlets count at different speeds and add batches at different times, so their totals differ by a few hundred votes at any moment. A blank cell means the outlet gave the lead but not the totals.

Why the whole country is watching

ABC News projects that Democrats will control the U.S. Senate when the new Congress is sworn in. Yahoo News reports a Democratic majority of 54 seats, with Mississippi and Alaska still to decide how large it grows. Democrats have already picked up seven Senate seats; if they win both Mississippi and Alaska, they would hold 56 seats for the first time since 2008, The Hill reports. Wherever you live, this one seat helps set the margin on every Senate vote for the next six years: judges, the budget, health care and food aid.

Mississippi has the largest Black share of any state: 1,072,849 Black residents, 36.4% of everyone who lives there (Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020 to 2024). Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1982, ABC News reports. If Colom's lead holds, he would be the first Black U.S. senator from Mississippi since Blanche K. Bruce, whose term ended in 1881, the Magnolia Tribune reports.

Hyde-Smith has held the seat since 2018, first by appointment, then by winning the 2020 election with 54%, ABC News reports.

How Colom got here without the national money

In July, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a $40 million push in 10 battleground states. Mississippi was not on the list, Mississippi Today reported. The Colom campaign said it was raising its money from Mississippi donors instead. From April through June, Colom raised $945,000 to Hyde-Smith's $781,000, though she held more cash, $2.5 million to his $847,000 (Mississippi Today).

Black members of Congress pressed the party to invest. In September, Representative Bennie Thompson of Mississippi said the committee was "missing a golden opportunity," and Congressional Black Caucus Chair Yvette Clarke called Mississippi "a sleeping giant," Punchbowl News reported.

Colom and Hyde-Smith have met before. President Biden nominated Colom to be a federal judge in the Northern District of Mississippi, and Hyde-Smith used a home state senator's power to block his confirmation hearing, The Hill reports.

The national money came late. Senate Majority PAC put $1.2 million behind its first television ad in the race two weeks before Election Day, and Kamala Harris campaigned with Colom that week, theGrio reported. The Senate Democrats' committee also spent $500,000 on the race, The Hill reported.

On this page: The ballots still being counted and The dispute over affidavit ballots

The ballots still being counted

Counties. Eleven counties had not finished counting on Thursday, Yahoo News reported from Associated Press data. Five lean toward Colom, including Hinds County, the state's most populous. Five lean toward Hyde-Smith. One is a toss up. On Wednesday, 70 of Mississippi's 82 counties had posted unofficial results to the state's system, Secretary of State Michael Watson said (WLBT).

Hinds County. About 7 in 10 Hinds County residents are Black: 157,160 of 218,533 (Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020 to 2024). Hinds began counting affidavit ballots Wednesday afternoon. As of Friday afternoon, roughly 7% of Hinds ballots were still to be counted, and Colom led Hinds by roughly 47,000 votes, the Associated Press reported. On Thursday morning, Hinds County election commissioner Yvonne Robinson Ford said, "I ask everyone to please be patient," the Mississippi Free Press reported.

Hinds election commissioners are reviewing affidavit ballots in meetings open to the public, CNN reported. One commissioner had more than 600 to review, including 233 from Jackson State University students. Commissioner Felicia McClinton said she rejected a number of them because the students were not registered in the precinct where they voted. Lily Moens, policy and research director at Mississippi Votes, told CNN most rejected ballots she is hearing about were cast at the wrong precinct. You can attend your county's affidavit review; the meetings are open to the public (CNN).

Mail ballots. About 3,600 mail ballots had not come back as of Wednesday, Watson said. By Thursday afternoon his office put the number at around 3,300, and many of the outstanding mail ballots are in Hinds County, the Mississippi Free Press reported. A mail ballot postmarked by Election Day counts if it arrives within five business days, by Tuesday, November 10 (ABC News). The U.S. Supreme Court upheld that window in June in Watson v. Republican National Committee, The Mississippi Independent reports.

Affidavit ballots. No one has an official total. The Secretary of State's office told ABC News "there is no definitive number they can give." Each side has offered its own estimate:

• The Colom campaign: about 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots cast (Yahoo News).
• Mississippi Republican Party chairman Mike Hurst: about 20,000 ballots uncounted, with "a significant number of these" in Republican leaning areas (Yahoo News).

One county shows how affidavit ballots are breaking so far. In Lafayette County, 207 affidavit ballots were counted: 142 for Colom, 60 for Hyde-Smith and 5 for Pinkins, the Mississippi Free Press reported Thursday. That is one county, not the state.

Harrison County will not count its affidavit ballots until November 10, the Mississippi Free Press reported.

The dispute over affidavit ballots

Hyde-Smith's lawyers sent a letter to all 82 counties demanding that election officials keep affidavit ballots separate from other ballots and preserve them, WLOX reported. Hurst called the letter standard for a race this close.

The Colom campaign answered with its own letter to each county, calling the demand "unlawful and extraordinary" and a threat to "the secrecy of a voter's ballot," WLOX reported. Elias Law Group is leading the legal work for Colom (Mississippi Free Press), and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is sending legal help (Magnolia Tribune, citing Punchbowl News).

Both sides have people watching the count. Hurst said at a Thursday press conference that more than 50 volunteer attorneys and observers are working across the state for Republicans, CNN reported. Fair Fight Action, founded by Stacey Abrams, is working with the Colom campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (CNN).

No lawsuit had been filed as of the latest reporting. If one is filed, SourceLine will add it here.

On this page: Who decides, and the question to ask; If you vote in Mississippi; If you vote anywhere else; The next dates; and One thing to do

Who decides, and the question to ask

You, the voter. If you voted an affidavit ballot because you had no photo ID, your vote counts only if you show an acceptable photo ID at your county circuit clerk's office by Tuesday, November 10. Ask: Has my ballot been counted, and if not, why not?

Your county circuit clerk and county election commission. They review every affidavit ballot, count late mail ballots and certify the county's count by November 13. In Hinds County, Circuit Clerk Zack Wallace and the county election commissioners do this work, the Mississippi Free Press reports. Ask: How many affidavit ballots did our county receive, and how many have been counted?

Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson. His office gathers the 82 certified county counts and declares the final statewide result on December 3. Ask: When will the state post each county's certified count?

If you vote in Mississippi

1. Voted an affidavit ballot with no photo ID? Take an acceptable photo ID to your county circuit clerk's office by Tuesday, November 10. That includes a Mississippi driver's license, a U.S. passport or a U.S. military photo ID. If you have none, ask the circuit clerk for a free Mississippi Voter ID Card; any eligible voter without an acceptable photo ID qualifies (Mississippi Secretary of State).
2. Want to know if your ballot counted? Use the written notice you were handed at the polls, or call your county circuit clerk. The Secretary of State's Elections Hotline is 1 800 829 6786, and the Voter ID Hotline is 1 844 678 6837.
3. Mailed your ballot? It counts if it was postmarked by November 3 and arrives by November 10.
4. Help a neighbor. If someone you know voted by affidavit, ask whether they have shown their ID yet. The Mississippi Center for Justice, a nonprofit legal advocacy group, has urged affidavit and mail voters to check their ballot status (Mississippi Free Press).
5. Get help from people on the ground. The NAACP, which CNN describes as nonpartisan, is sending members and volunteers to all 82 counties to watch how affidavit ballots are reviewed and to reach voters who must show ID at the county courthouse before November 10. NAACP President Derrick Johnson told CNN: "Our interest is no individual, particularly African Americans, disenfranchised in this process because of lack of ID." Mississippi Votes, a nonpartisan civic organization, has set up a voter information hotline and virtual phone banking for questions about curing ballots (CNN).

Official information: Mississippi Secretary of State, sos.ms.gov/voter-id and yallvote.sos.ms.gov

If you vote anywhere else

Your senators vote on the same bills this seat will vote on. Type your address to see your two U.S. senators, how they voted and how to reach them.

The next dates

• Tuesday, November 10: last day to show photo ID for an affidavit ballot; last day for mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive.
• Friday, November 13: counties send certified counts to the Secretary of State.
• Thursday, December 3: the Secretary of State declares the final statewide result.

One thing to do

If you voted an affidavit ballot in Mississippi, take your photo ID to the circuit clerk before Tuesday. If you did not, text one person who did.